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AutoZone (AZO) Up 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AutoZone (AZO - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AutoZone due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

AutoZone Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates

AutoZone reported earnings of $46.46 per share for fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 (ended Aug 26, 2023), up 14.7% year over year. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $44.51. Net sales grew 6.4% year over year to $5,690.6 million. The top line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,581 million.

In the reported quarter, domestic commercial sales totaled $1,499 million, up from $1,442.3 million recorded in the year-ago period. Domestic same-store sales (sales at stores open at least for a year) rose by 1.7%.

Gross profit increased to $2,999.7 million from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $2,755.9 million. Operating profit increased 10.8% year over year to $1,222.5 million.

Store Opening & Inventory

During the quarter, AutoZone opened 53 new stores in the United States, 27 in Mexico and 17 in Brazil. It exited the quarter with 6,300 stores in the United States, 740 in Mexico and 100 in Brazil. The total store count was 7,140 as of Aug 26, 2023.

Its inventory increased by 2.2% year over year in the reported quarter, led by new store growth. At quarter-end, the inventory per location was negative $201,000 compared with negative $240,000 a year ago.

Financials and Share Repurchases

As of Aug 26, 2023, AutoZone had cash and cash equivalents of $277.1 million, up from $264.4 million as of Aug 27, 2022. The total debt amounted to $7,668.5 million as of Aug 26, marking an increase from $6,122.1 million as of Aug 27, 2022.

The company repurchased 403,000 shares of its common stock for $1 billion during the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023 at an average price of $2,502 per share. At quarter-end, it had $1.8 billion remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, AutoZone has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, AutoZone has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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